Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 2 votes, 5.00 average. Display Modes
Old 09-24-2012, 21:13   #91
PowerOfGray
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 921
PowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond repute
Quote:
Originally Posted by Planes v1.0b View Post
You are on the same server flipping the same coin, it has just as much effect of the outcome of your flip as your previous flips. And I wasn't agreeing with you, it was what I thought all along, and said all along, pretty sure my first post in this thread was me talking about when i bet on red in roulette 25 times and lost all 25 times.
Just because the probability of something happening is 50-50 or even 99-1 does not mean it will happen every time. It could happen 10000 times in a row, or it could not happen 10000 times in a row. Probability is just the odds that it will happen vs odds it wont happen in the long run. It is why its the probability and not the ratio.

I swear you must never have played any form of lottery or gambled in any sense of the word.
PowerOfGray is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-24-2012, 21:16   #92
PowerOfGray
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 921
PowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond repute
Pretty sure multiple people multiple times have emphasized the part of independent events.


You need help with adding fractions together so I thought I'd be a nice guy and give you some help. So here.
http://www.mathsisfun.com/fractions_addition.html

Last edited by thehempknight; 09-25-2012 at 01:07.
PowerOfGray is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-24-2012, 21:22   #93
Myaio
Banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 355
Myaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond repute
Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerOfGray View Post
Pretty sure multiple people multiple times have emphasized the part of independent events.


You need help with adding fractions together so I thought I'd be a nice guy and give you some help. So here.
http://www.mathsisfun.com/fractions_addition.html
Adding fractions won't calculate the correct outcome. Lets play a game very similar to I spy, when you can tell me the maths needed to compltely calculate this instance and correctly determine it's outcome as opposed to offering me the worlds dumbest "prediction" which by the way isn't even going to occur anywhere near as often as you'd like it to. I'll show you my boobies.
Myaio is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-24-2012, 21:27   #94
jeoff2
Registered User
 
jeoff2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 154
jeoff2 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerOfGray View Post
Just because the probability of something happening is 50-50 or even 99-1 does not mean it will happen every time. It could happen 10000 times in a row, or it could not happen 10000 times in a row. Probability is just the odds that it will happen vs odds it wont happen in the long run. It is why its the probability and not the ratio.

I swear you must never have played any form of lottery or gambled in any sense of the word.

Just toes a coin and find out if you will get all head in a row

if you do that is called luck
__________________
Turquoise/Diamond


The trouble with programmers is that you can never tell what a programmer is doing until it's too late.


Resume Next
jeoff2 is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-24-2012, 22:14   #95
LitasLTL
Registered User
 
LitasLTL's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Lithuania
Posts: 10,014
LitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond repute
Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerOfGray View Post
---------Fail-------------------Succeed
-----Fail----Suc-------------fail-----Suc
Fail-Suc--fail-suc-------fail-suc--fail-suc

Where exactly do you people get 50% chance when it is clearly 12.5 or 1/8 chance to fail three times.
Ok lets go to the source of all this misunderstanding. Yest it is exactly 12.5 or 1/8 chance to fail three times. Just the same as its exactly 12.5 or 1/8 chance that you wiill faill 2 times and then succesfully compose. Each time one of the 2 happening is equal 50% so its 0,5x0,5x05=0,125. But if 2 of the events allready happened it means that its 1x1x0,5=0,5. You cant say that something that allready happened have 50% of happening because it allready did. It was like that and not else. The chance of 3 things hapening in a row is so low because there are more variations when one of the events are diferent.
Here i go again. So the chance of failing to compose 3 times in a row is 12,5%, but succeding is after failing is also the same.
Win Win Win
Win Win Lossl
Win Lossl Win
Loss Win Win
Loss Loss Win
Loss Win Loss
Win Loss Loss
Loss Loss Loss

So if you allready fail to compose 2 times all the other options are gone except the two whic starts with loss loss that allready hapened.
Win Win Win
Win Win Lossl
Win Loss Win
Loss Win Win

Loss Loss Win
Loss WinLoss
Win Loss Loss

Loss Loss Loss
So when there are only 2 posible outcomes left what are the chance of one of them hapening?

The only way you could have higher chance of succeding after failing to compose if it is programed this way but this have nothing to do with math and knowing TQ you would only have lower chance after succeding too much. So if system detects that you are lucky next time when it will say you have 50% succes rate it will be 40% because TQ are greedy
__________________
TQ's moto: W i$Tn, w ar.

Playing free to play - free to win game "count to 50 before mod posts". Rxin and trunks006 are the bestest.
LitasLTL is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-24-2012, 22:56   #96
Myaio
Banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 355
Myaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond reputeMyaio has a reputation beyond repute
Instead lets all go and buy 100 +1 stones and chart our success vs failure vs progress on item. Then we can all report back here and laugh at the liars who make out like their numbers consistently math the probability factor. The second thing tought in statistics is that no matter how linear a path you make for yourself, the numbers are rarely ever right. May as well buy 10 BigMacs from 10 different McDonalds and ponder as to why it is they all taste the same.
Myaio is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-24-2012, 22:59   #97
Seppo
The Archer
 
Seppo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Stockholm, Sweden
Posts: 4,893
Seppo has a reputation beyond reputeSeppo has a reputation beyond reputeSeppo has a reputation beyond reputeSeppo has a reputation beyond reputeSeppo has a reputation beyond reputeSeppo has a reputation beyond reputeSeppo has a reputation beyond reputeSeppo has a reputation beyond reputeSeppo has a reputation beyond reputeSeppo has a reputation beyond reputeSeppo has a reputation beyond repute
Quote:
Originally Posted by Myaio View Post
Instead lets all go and buy 100 +1 stones and chart our success vs failure vs progress on item. Then we can all report back here and laugh at the liars who make out like their numbers consistently math the probability factor. The second thing tought in statistics is that no matter how linear a path you make for yourself, the numbers are rarely ever right. May as well buy 10 BigMacs from 10 different McDonalds and ponder as to why it is they all taste the same.
Where the hell did we say that you succeed more often that way? I am really ****ing confused about that.
__________________
Cicatrice, Earl of Ruby
Warrior-Warrior-Trojan 130-130-140

Super +7 SDG/SDG -5 Earrings
Super +6 SDG/SDG -5 Necklace
Super +7 SDG/SDG -5 Permanent phase 2 Ring
Super +7 SDG/SDG -5 Armor
Super +6 SDG/SDG -5 Boots
Super +6 STG/STG -1 Fan
Super +6 SGG/SGG -1 Tower
Super +12 SDG/SDG -5 Permanent phase 6 Sword
Super +8 SDG/SDG -5 Permanent phase 4 Sword

P9 Apothecary
P9 Martial Art
P9 Chi Master
P9 Performer
P9 Wrangler


Proud pokmon trainer of Angtoria

eRepublik
Seppo is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-25-2012, 00:39   #98
LitasLTL
Registered User
 
LitasLTL's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Lithuania
Posts: 10,014
LitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond reputeLitasLTL has a reputation beyond repute
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seppo View Post
Where the hell did we say that you succeed more often that way? I am really ****ing confused about that.
I dont know who you are calling "we" but maybe somwhere around here?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Faxfox View Post
Just basic probability. Take a junk item and use a +1 stone, so it has a 50% success rate. Keep QCing until you fail it twice in a row or more. While they are all independent events and do have an actually independent probability of 50% fail, the probability that 3 in a row will fail is only 12.5%. So if you quick compose everything using this method, in theory you will succeed on your actual items more than you fail. I'm sure I'm not the only one that's been doing this...
There is only 2 posible explanations why FaxFox system could work:
1. Plain luck (most likely in this case)
2. TQs programing which determines your luck by result of previous actions. So when system show that you have 50% succes rate it consider that its acctualy 40% or 60% (showing false info) which is posible but have nothing do do with math.
__________________
TQ's moto: W i$Tn, w ar.

Playing free to play - free to win game "count to 50 before mod posts". Rxin and trunks006 are the bestest.
LitasLTL is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-25-2012, 01:41   #99
PowerOfGray
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 921
PowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond reputePowerOfGray has a reputation beyond repute
Quote:
Originally Posted by LitasLTL View Post
Ok lets go to the source of all this misunderstanding. Yest it is exactly 12.5 or 1/8 chance to fail three times. Just the same as its exactly 12.5 or 1/8 chance that you wiill faill 2 times and then succesfully compose. Each time one of the 2 happening is equal 50% so its 0,5x0,5x05=0,125. But if 2 of the events allready happened it means that its 1x1x0,5=0,5. You cant say that something that allready happened have 50% of happening because it allready did. It was like that and not else. The chance of 3 things hapening in a row is so low because there are more variations when one of the events are diferent.
Here i go again. So the chance of failing to compose 3 times in a row is 12,5%, but succeding is after failing is also the same.
Win Win Win
Win Win Lossl
Win Lossl Win
Loss Win Win
Loss Loss Win
Loss Win Loss
Win Loss Loss
Loss Loss Loss

So if you allready fail to compose 2 times all the other options are gone except the two whic starts with loss loss that allready hapened.
Win Win Win
Win Win Lossl
Win Loss Win
Loss Win Win

Loss Loss Win
Loss WinLoss
Win Loss Loss

Loss Loss Loss
So when there are only 2 posible outcomes left what are the chance of one of them hapening?

The only way you could have higher chance of succeding after failing to compose if it is programed this way but this have nothing to do with math and knowing TQ you would only have lower chance after succeding too much. So if system detects that you are lucky next time when it will say you have 50% succes rate it will be 40% because TQ are greedy
Everything besides the last paragraph is arguing something that we all agreed on before you even posted. Well we all besides the person who cannot add fractions together.


Within the limits placed already previously in the thread of adding +1s to a +0 or +1 item which gives 10/20 progress of 50% chance to succeed with quick compose.....

The chance of any given try is 50-50. Meaning any time will give you a fail or success at even rates in the long run. What the original issue was, was what was the probability to fail three times in a row. Which you agree is 12.5%. Now you are trying to say we are implying there is only a 12.5% chance of the last attempt to fail. Which I haven't seen anyone even say. It is why we always said 50% or 50-50 for each attempt.


Quote:
Originally Posted by LitasLTL View Post
I dont know who you are calling "we" but maybe somwhere around here?

There is only 2 posible explanations why FaxFox system could work:
1. Plain luck (most likely in this case)
2. TQs programing which determines your luck by result of previous actions. So when system show that you have 50% succes rate it consider that its acctualy 40% or 60% (showing false info) which is posible but have nothing do do with math.
I'll let my previous self respond to that one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerOfGray View Post
His logic is flawed to begin with. He assumes that success is dependent on previous attempts, which it is not.

But to cut down on your + costs, Quick compose +1s upto +3 or +4, then normal compose them into your main gear.
PowerOfGray is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-25-2012, 02:33   #100
jeoff2
Registered User
 
jeoff2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 154
jeoff2 is on a distinguished road
If i where the programmer of TQ i would say
"Its still based on your luck"

Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerOfGray View Post
if you know programming try

Private Sub Button1_Click(ByVal sender As System.Object, ByVal e As System.EventArgs) Handles Button1.Click

Dim r As Decimal = GetRandom(0, 100)

Dim success As Decimal = TextBox1.Text
If success > r Then
Me.TextBox2.Text += "Success" & ", "
Else
Me.TextBox2.Text += "failed" & ", "
End If
End Sub




Public Function GetRandom(ByVal Min As Integer, ByVal Max As Integer) As Decimal
Dim Generator As System.Random = New System.Random()
Return Generator.Next(Min, Max)
End Function
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	random1.png
Views:	42
Size:	41.8 KB
ID:	147717  
__________________
Turquoise/Diamond


The trouble with programmers is that you can never tell what a programmer is doing until it's too late.


Resume Next
jeoff2 is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-25-2012, 02:41   #101
jeoff2
Registered User
 
jeoff2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 154
jeoff2 is on a distinguished road
^
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	random2.png
Views:	42
Size:	46.4 KB
ID:	147718  
__________________
Turquoise/Diamond


The trouble with programmers is that you can never tell what a programmer is doing until it's too late.


Resume Next
jeoff2 is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-25-2012, 02:59   #102
CheekyPunk27
JesusFreak
 
CheekyPunk27's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Australia
Posts: 6,512
CheekyPunk27 has a reputation beyond reputeCheekyPunk27 has a reputation beyond reputeCheekyPunk27 has a reputation beyond reputeCheekyPunk27 has a reputation beyond reputeCheekyPunk27 has a reputation beyond reputeCheekyPunk27 has a reputation beyond reputeCheekyPunk27 has a reputation beyond reputeCheekyPunk27 has a reputation beyond reputeCheekyPunk27 has a reputation beyond reputeCheekyPunk27 has a reputation beyond reputeCheekyPunk27 has a reputation beyond repute
this thread is full of luls.

Okay first, I needa explain the 50/100 + 50/100 + 50/100 thing in a way that people would understand.

Half + half + half right?

Half a pizza + half a pizza + half a pizza = 3 halves of a pizza = 1 full pizza and one half pizza. ie. 1.5 pizzas.

1/2 + 1/2 + 1/2 = 3/2 = 1.5 pizzas!
not 3/6 = 0.5 pizzas!

~~~~

Okay, next, the probabilities.

We're looking at a succession of independent bernoulli trials.

ie. A binomial trial, with n=n.

In the case of using 3 +1 stones, we're looking at n=3.

So yes, as people have said, you can get
Win Win Win
Win Win Loss
Win Lossl Win
Loss Win Win
Loss Loss Win
Loss Win Loss
Win Loss Loss
Loss Loss Loss

More simply:
Pr(3 wins) = 3C3 * 0.5^3 * 0.5^0 = 12.5%
Pr(2 wins) = 3C2 * 0.5^2 * 0.5^1 = 37.5%
Pr(1 win) = 3C1 * 0.5^1 * 0.5^2 = 37.5%
Pr(0 wins) = 3C0 * 0.5^0 * 0.5^3 = 12.5%

The expected number of wins this way would be:
0.125*3 + 0.375*2 + 0.375*1 + 0.125*0 = 1.5

Which makes sense cause using 3 stones with 50% chance each, we would expect 50% of 3 to work = 1.5

So if you use 3 stones, on 3 +1 items, you would expect to get 1.5 +2 items.
Or, if you do that twice, 6 +1 stones on 6 +1 items, you would expect to get 3 +2 items.

The other way to do this, would be to have one +1 item, and 3 +1 stones, and then try the three +1 stones until you succeed.

ie.
Win first time = 0.5
Lose, then Win = 0.5*0.5 = 0.25
Lose, then Lose, then Win = 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125
Lose, then Lose, then Lose = 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125

The expected number of stones you would use in this case is
1*0.5 + 2*0.25 * 3*0.125 + 3*0.125 = 1.75 stones.
And the expected rate of success would be 1*(0.5 + 0.25 + 0.125) = 0.875

So on average, this way, you would use 1.75 stones for every 0.875 successes. ie. 2 stones for one success. Same thing.

Essentially, there isn't a trick. In the long run, your wins will balance out the losses and you'll have spent the same amount as if you were to just buy +1 stones and compose them normally.

The only way to win consistently, is if you're "lucky".
__________________
Sapphire/Emerald Server
Mitsurugi ~ Wat>War>Tro ~ Lv.140 ~ 342bp
Was once special: Fixed Phoenix, Fixed Celestial, Fixed Penetration, Fixed Seizer RIP 22/10/11
+12 Sword ~ +12 Dagger ~ SuperRidingCrop(+6)(Bound)
Since 2004 ~ Hacked Dec 2014 ~ RIP
CheekyPunk27 is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-25-2012, 03:45   #103
Legolito
Registered User
 
Legolito's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 123
Legolito has a reputation beyond reputeLegolito has a reputation beyond reputeLegolito has a reputation beyond reputeLegolito has a reputation beyond reputeLegolito has a reputation beyond reputeLegolito has a reputation beyond reputeLegolito has a reputation beyond reputeLegolito has a reputation beyond reputeLegolito has a reputation beyond reputeLegolito has a reputation beyond reputeLegolito has a reputation beyond repute
Quote:
Originally Posted by CheekyPunk27 View Post
this thread is full of luls.

Okay first, I needa explain the 50/100 + 50/100 + 50/100 thing in a way that people would understand.

Half + half + half right?

Half a pizza + half a pizza + half a pizza = 3 halves of a pizza = 1 full pizza and one half pizza. ie. 1.5 pizzas.

1/2 + 1/2 + 1/2 = 3/2 = 1.5 pizzas!
not 3/6 = 0.5 pizzas!

~~~~

Okay, next, the probabilities.

We're looking at a succession of independent bernoulli trials.

ie. A binomial trial, with n=n.

In the case of using 3 +1 stones, we're looking at n=3.

So yes, as people have said, you can get
Win Win Win
Win Win Loss
Win Lossl Win
Loss Win Win
Loss Loss Win
Loss Win Loss
Win Loss Loss
Loss Loss Loss

More simply:
Pr(3 wins) = 3C3 * 0.5^3 * 0.5^0 = 12.5%
Pr(2 wins) = 3C2 * 0.5^2 * 0.5^1 = 37.5%
Pr(1 win) = 3C1 * 0.5^1 * 0.5^2 = 37.5%
Pr(0 wins) = 3C0 * 0.5^0 * 0.5^3 = 12.5%

The expected number of wins this way would be:
0.125*3 + 0.375*2 + 0.375*1 + 0.125*0 = 1.5

Which makes sense cause using 3 stones with 50% chance each, we would expect 50% of 3 to work = 1.5

So if you use 3 stones, on 3 +1 items, you would expect to get 1.5 +2 items.
Or, if you do that twice, 6 +1 stones on 6 +1 items, you would expect to get 3 +2 items.

The other way to do this, would be to have one +1 item, and 3 +1 stones, and then try the three +1 stones until you succeed.

ie.
Win first time = 0.5
Lose, then Win = 0.5*0.5 = 0.25
Lose, then Lose, then Win = 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125
Lose, then Lose, then Lose = 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125

The expected number of stones you would use in this case is
1*0.5 + 2*0.25 * 3*0.125 + 3*0.125 = 1.75 stones.
And the expected rate of success would be 1*(0.5 + 0.25 + 0.125) = 0.875

So on average, this way, you would use 1.75 stones for every 0.875 successes. ie. 2 stones for one success. Same thing.

Essentially, there isn't a trick. In the long run, your wins will balance out the losses and you'll have spent the same amount as if you were to just buy +1 stones and compose them normally.

The only way to win consistently, is if you're "lucky".
Didn't know aussies can do math
__________________
I <3 Conquer
Legolito is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-25-2012, 03:46   #104
Planes v1.0b
Kintama
 
Planes v1.0b's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,910
Planes v1.0b has a reputation beyond reputePlanes v1.0b has a reputation beyond reputePlanes v1.0b has a reputation beyond reputePlanes v1.0b has a reputation beyond reputePlanes v1.0b has a reputation beyond reputePlanes v1.0b has a reputation beyond reputePlanes v1.0b has a reputation beyond reputePlanes v1.0b has a reputation beyond reputePlanes v1.0b has a reputation beyond reputePlanes v1.0b has a reputation beyond reputePlanes v1.0b has a reputation beyond repute
Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerOfGray View Post
Just because the probability of something happening is 50-50 or even 99-1 does not mean it will happen every time. It could happen 10000 times in a row, or it could not happen 10000 times in a row. Probability is just the odds that it will happen vs odds it wont happen in the long run. It is why its the probability and not the ratio.

I swear you must never have played any form of lottery or gambled in any sense of the word.
Your dumb, because again I was not saying it does.

Last edited by Planes v1.0b; 09-25-2012 at 03:48.
Planes v1.0b is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Old 09-25-2012, 03:56   #105
IluminatI
I<3Food
 
IluminatI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: New Zealand, the land of sheep
Posts: 6,082
IluminatI has a reputation beyond reputeIluminatI has a reputation beyond reputeIluminatI has a reputation beyond reputeIluminatI has a reputation beyond reputeIluminatI has a reputation beyond reputeIluminatI has a reputation beyond reputeIluminatI has a reputation beyond reputeIluminatI has a reputation beyond reputeIluminatI has a reputation beyond reputeIluminatI has a reputation beyond reputeIluminatI has a reputation beyond repute
Quote:
Originally Posted by CheekyPunk27 View Post
this thread is full of luls.

Okay first, I needa explain the 50/100 + 50/100 + 50/100 thing in a way that people would understand.

Half + half + half right?

Half a pizza + half a pizza + half a pizza = 3 halves of a pizza = 1 full pizza and one half pizza. ie. 1.5 pizzas.

1/2 + 1/2 + 1/2 = 3/2 = 1.5 pizzas!
not 3/6 = 0.5 pizzas!

~~~~

Okay, next, the probabilities.

We're looking at a succession of independent bernoulli trials.

ie. A binomial trial, with n=n.

In the case of using 3 +1 stones, we're looking at n=3.

So yes, as people have said, you can get
Win Win Win
Win Win Loss
Win Lossl Win
Loss Win Win
Loss Loss Win
Loss Win Loss
Win Loss Loss
Loss Loss Loss

More simply:
Pr(3 wins) = 3C3 * 0.5^3 * 0.5^0 = 12.5%
Pr(2 wins) = 3C2 * 0.5^2 * 0.5^1 = 37.5%
Pr(1 win) = 3C1 * 0.5^1 * 0.5^2 = 37.5%
Pr(0 wins) = 3C0 * 0.5^0 * 0.5^3 = 12.5%

The expected number of wins this way would be:
0.125*3 + 0.375*2 + 0.375*1 + 0.125*0 = 1.5

Which makes sense cause using 3 stones with 50% chance each, we would expect 50% of 3 to work = 1.5

So if you use 3 stones, on 3 +1 items, you would expect to get 1.5 +2 items.
Or, if you do that twice, 6 +1 stones on 6 +1 items, you would expect to get 3 +2 items.

The other way to do this, would be to have one +1 item, and 3 +1 stones, and then try the three +1 stones until you succeed.

ie.
Win first time = 0.5
Lose, then Win = 0.5*0.5 = 0.25
Lose, then Lose, then Win = 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125
Lose, then Lose, then Lose = 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125

The expected number of stones you would use in this case is
1*0.5 + 2*0.25 * 3*0.125 + 3*0.125 = 1.75 stones.
And the expected rate of success would be 1*(0.5 + 0.25 + 0.125) = 0.875

So on average, this way, you would use 1.75 stones for every 0.875 successes. ie. 2 stones for one success. Same thing.

Essentially, there isn't a trick. In the long run, your wins will balance out the losses and you'll have spent the same amount as if you were to just buy +1 stones and compose them normally.

The only way to win consistently, is if you're "lucky".
didnt read thread.
but fcuk y'all this guy is right.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrieveR. View Post
Egyptians looooooooool
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSeeeker View Post
ROFL , server transfer ......I really hate to burst your bubble but server transfer is akin to that scene in Titanic where its hit the iceburg and all the lifeboats are gone and the ship is going under and the people are rushing to the parts of the ship thats still out of the water.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReMind View Post
Tq will have a major update to solve the bot soon. Auto leveling is different from bot. It's a new way to play CO while you are afk.
IluminatI is offline   Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 08:43.


You Rated this Thread: