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Old 09-23-2012, 04:21   #46
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Originally Posted by Myaio View Post
I figured I'd make myself 99% certain that the 1% you latch onto is the part no one gives a shiit about. Since you somehow managed to account for 12.5% of something that 87.5% of the same thing made sure the 12.5% wouldn't ever happen, I'd like to offer you the opportunity to kiss my ass and learn real math.
Build a tree diagram, the chance of the same thing happening 3 times in a row is (1/2)^3. This is also the same as failing two and then succeeding once. It is also the same as succeeding 3 times in a row.

But statistically you will only fail 3 times in a row 12.5% of the time. Now you go learn some real math you stupid ****ing American.
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Old 09-23-2012, 04:30   #47
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Originally Posted by Seppo View Post
Build a tree diagram, the chance of the same thing happening 3 times in a row is (1/2)^3. This is also the same as failing two and then succeeding once. It is also the same as succeeding 3 times in a row.

But statistically you will only fail 3 times in a row 12.5% of the time. Now you go learn some real math you stupid ****ing American.
I'm English and this level of basic maths got shat on and then shat out when higher levels of mathematics made their laws obsolete. This level of mathematis serves absolutely no purpose in any statistical anomaly what so ever. Your statistics meerely look good in a pie chart. The chance of 3 compositions going the same way 3 times in a row is even less than 12.5%, assuming you actualy know how to further your statistics of course. Thanks for kissing my ass hot head.

This sort of basic mathematics could go on forever, I could continue to use the 1% you've managed to latch on to calculate 7 million newer instances in which you'd have to kiss my ass my tummy and the back of my neck, yet the 99% that eluded you would have calculated 7 billiob newer instances in which you would have been kissing my lady lips from top to bottom. Lets kiss and make up, you're clearly not getting out of the retard classroom.

Last edited by Myaio; 09-23-2012 at 04:36.
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Old 09-23-2012, 05:03   #48
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I flipped a coin before and lost the call more than 25 times in a row, absolutely true story.
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Old 09-23-2012, 05:20   #49
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I'm not at all amused by how horny you didn't make me feel.
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Old 09-23-2012, 05:20   #50
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I haven't try this on my main gear
I am kinda scared when it fail xD
But I did try on those unused + item and unused gear.
Some succeed and some fail.
The greatest I had achieve is +6 my elite 1 soc warrior headband from +5 with 30 percent success rate xD
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Old 09-23-2012, 05:46   #51
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Originally Posted by Faxfox View Post
Right, so there is a 12.5% chance that you will fail all 3 in a row. So the odds that you would fail all 3 are quite low. The chance you will succeed on any given quick compose with a 50% success rate is 50%. You've reiterated my post...
Yeah, i just left out this little bit of bull****:
Quote:
So if you quick compose everything using this method, in theory you will succeed on your actual items more than you fail.
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Old 09-23-2012, 06:59   #52
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Bunch of idiots , its just a gameeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.
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Old 09-23-2012, 08:26   #53
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To make sure i don't play on 50% chance. I usually do the 62.5pct chance and it work 95pct of the time. Not tried on items higher than +3 tho.
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Old 09-23-2012, 11:06   #54
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The mathematics in this thread is believed by the mentally deficient, those who go to schools on the special bus.
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Old 09-23-2012, 13:00   #55
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Yeah, i just left out this little bit of bull****:
Because you are failing your junk items on purpose. Derp? It seems like you're just arguing to be arguable, and don't have any real content anymore.

The point of my post wasn't to start an argument, like I've said. I just offered my 2 cents. I only use this method of quick composing on my gears, and I've +6ed to +12ed all of my gears with a significantly higher success than fail rate. You can take it or leave it, I'm done arguing though.
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Last edited by Faxfox; 09-23-2012 at 13:13.
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Old 09-23-2012, 13:29   #56
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the chance of failing all three times is 50%, despite what the attention seeker claims
master race reporting in
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oh lisn you say any thing bad about us why we dont say same words? coz allah learn us Tolerance i want all of you keep this words in you mind all time
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Old 09-23-2012, 14:01   #57
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the chance of failing all three times is 50%, despite what the attention seeker claims
master race reporting in
---------Fail-------------------Succeed
-----Fail----Suc-------------fail-----Suc
Fail-Suc--fail-suc-------fail-suc--fail-suc

Where exactly do you people get 50% chance when it is clearly 12.5 or 1/8 chance to fail three times.
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Old 09-23-2012, 14:15   #58
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Originally Posted by PowerOfGray View Post
---------Fail-------------------Succeed
-----Fail----Suc-------------fail-----Suc
Fail-Suc--fail-suc-------fail-suc--fail-suc

Where exactly do you people get 50% chance when it is clearly 12.5 or 1/8 chance to fail three times.
They learned about independent events and the gambler's fallacy in their high school introductory statistics class and now they think they're the masters of the world
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Old 09-23-2012, 14:44   #59
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This topic is Op, needs nerfing.
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Old 09-23-2012, 21:34   #60
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Originally Posted by Faxfox View Post
Because you are failing your junk items on purpose. Derp? It seems like you're just arguing to be arguable, and don't have any real content anymore.
No, i'm arguing because you are giving people wrong advice. The only way to increase your chances is to put more progress on the item. What you are suggesting will LOWER the chances, because those + stones you are using on junk items could have instead been used on their real items, giving a higher chance.
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and I've +6ed to +12ed all of my gears with a significantly higher success than fail rate. You can take it or leave it, I'm done arguing though.
Congratulations, you got lucky. I've used quick compose 3 times. Once i +6d my bs with 70 progress (3.2% chance), then i +6d my cap with 690 progress (32% chance), and i +3d some random item with 10 progress (12.5% chance). This is not proof that the odds are higher than they say, or that something i did increased my chances; i just got lucky. And so did you.

Quote:
They learned about independent events and the gambler's fallacy in their high school introductory statistics class and now they think they're the masters of the world
It's too bad you never learned about these things. It's kind of impressive though that you know what an independent event is, but still think that 2 prior events can allow you to succeed more often than fail on a 50% chance.
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