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Old 09-23-2012, 00:38   #31
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Originally Posted by Faxfox View Post
I don't understand the point of your post. But I think you missed a negative on that exponent there
His point was that you don't know what you are talking about.

If you quick compose items that with half of the progress needed for the next +, you will have a 50% chance of success, which means in the long run, you will always fail roughly the same amount as you succeed.
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Old 09-23-2012, 00:42   #32
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Originally Posted by Faxfox View Post
Just basic probability. Take a junk item and use a +1 stone, so it has a 50% success rate. Keep QCing until you fail it twice in a row or more. While they are all independent events and do have an actually independent probability of 50% fail, the probability that 3 in a row will fail is only 12.5%. So if you quick compose everything using this method, in theory you will succeed on your actual items more than you fail. I'm sure I'm not the only one that's been doing this...
I really didn't think of it this way! And I did statistics for 3 years ¬_¬
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Old 09-23-2012, 00:45   #33
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Originally Posted by ghfdhhdf View Post
His point was that you don't know what you are talking about.

If you quick compose items that with half of the progress needed for the next +, you will have a 50% chance of success, which means in the long run, you will always fail roughly the same amount as you succeed.
What you said:
Items will fail and succeed roughly the same amount at 50% success rate

What I said:
Fail 2-3 junk items before composing on your actual item

Use brain and put 2 and 2 together please
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Old 09-23-2012, 00:46   #34
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Originally Posted by Seppo View Post
You don't know statistics do you? Yes if you break them down to single events it's a 50% chance to fail still. But if you look at it as 3 connected events it becomes 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125 = 12.5% chance that it happens 3 times in a row.
What's tought to you in school is clearly a lie. You missed a whole 86.5%, can you tell me what happened to it?

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Originally Posted by Faxfox View Post
That's a lot of hate for someone who has no idea what he's talking about, considering I was just trying to be helpful. I'm not going to try to argue with such an idiotic post, I'll let anyone with a brain do that for me...
I'm not at all hating, I just felt the need to say something aloud, I really am amused by so called "logic" especially when it takes nothing other than a single realisation to understand that "logic" is nothing other than mans way of hiding his ideal. I'm also a She.



Quote:
Originally Posted by ghfdhhdf View Post
Interestingly, the chance of succeeding all 3 times is also 12.5%.
Mmmhum, so what gets done with 86.5% of a situation that got left out to clarify that 50% or 100% as a mulitiple of 3 divides to equal 12.5%. The statistics just made it look different on graph, why didn't you just change it to a pie chart?
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Old 09-23-2012, 00:52   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Faxfox View Post
What you said:
Items will fail and succeed roughly the same amount at 50% success rate

What I said:
Fail 2-3 junk items before composing on your actual item

Use brain and put 2 and 2 together please
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Why don't you use your brain?

You can fail a million times in a row before trying your real item, you'll still have a 50% chance.
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Old 09-23-2012, 00:56   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghfdhhdf View Post
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Why don't you use your brain?

You can fail a million times in a row before trying your real item, you'll still have a 50% chance.
If you actually read my original post, you'll see that I said that.
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Old 09-23-2012, 01:02   #37
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Wait what. So what if I Quick Compose an item with 0/* progress towards its next +? What are the chances of success and failure then? This system seems very flawed to me. It sounds an awful lot like Tq have broken down the composition factor and ingested an element of "luck". Just like Seppo's statistics, soo confusing.
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Old 09-23-2012, 01:27   #38
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Originally Posted by Myaio View Post
Wait what. So what if I Quick Compose an item with 0/* progress towards its next +? What are the chances of success and failure then? This system seems very flawed to me. It sounds an awful lot like Tq have broken down the composition factor and ingested an element of "luck". Just like Seppo's statistics, soo confusing.
The chance would be 0...sigh
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Old 09-23-2012, 01:30   #39
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Originally Posted by Faxfox View Post
If you actually read my original post, you'll see that I said that.
Yes, you did, but then you proceeded to say the exact opposite.

The chance of failing 3 times in a row is 12.5%. The chance of failing a third time after failing twice is 50%.

What you are arguing is the exact definition of the gambler's fallacy.
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Old 09-23-2012, 01:52   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghfdhhdf View Post
Yes, you did, but then you proceeded to say the exact opposite.

The chance of failing 3 times in a row is 12.5%. The chance of failing a third time after failing twice is 50%.

What you are arguing is the exact definition of the gambler's fallacy.
Right, so there is a 12.5% chance that you will fail all 3 in a row. So the odds that you would fail all 3 are quite low. The chance you will succeed on any given quick compose with a 50% success rate is 50%. You've reiterated my post...
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Old 09-23-2012, 02:01   #41
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Originally Posted by ghfdhhdf View Post
Yes, you did, but then you proceeded to say the exact opposite.

The chance of failing 3 times in a row is 12.5%. The chance of failing a third time after failing twice is 50%.

What you are arguing is the exact definition of the gambler's fallacy.
Actually the chance of failing 3 at once is 12.5% since you had to combine the singular circumstances to determine the value. I'm pretty sure this level of basic mathematics is disregarded by almost every law of advanced mathematics. Also, this Quick Composing thing is of absolutely no certain benefit, I guess gambling is an addiction some people can't ignore.
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Old 09-23-2012, 03:30   #42
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this game is going down and it can't go up cos tq is ****ing up everything it doesn't have the fun it used to have and now it's so boring to play even if u have good gears and char this game has just ****ing maps full of bots and tq can't do anything about the bots and they ****ing give us mount armors that cost 5k-13k cps and they ****ing don't balance things they give every class some **** aoe skills the quests are ****ty bosses are stupid now they are easily killed excet spook3 gw is **** now gates and pole go down for 5 seconds the quick compose **** will rip u off if u use +8s on +8 just like demon boxes

it just doesn't have fun it's the same **** over and over
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Old 09-23-2012, 03:57   #43
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this game is going down and it can't go up cos tq is ****ing up everything it doesn't have the fun it used to have and now it's so boring to play even if u have good gears and char this game has just ****ing maps full of bots and tq can't do anything about the bots and they ****ing give us mount armors that cost 5k-13k cps and they ****ing don't balance things they give every class some **** aoe skills the quests are ****ty bosses are stupid now they are easily killed excet spook3 gw is **** now gates and pole go down for 5 seconds the quick compose **** will rip u off if u use +8s on +8 just like demon boxes

it just doesn't have fun it's the same **** over and over
This here is the logic of a man with no hope, what so ever.
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Old 09-23-2012, 04:09   #44
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Originally Posted by Myaio View Post
What's tought to you in school is clearly a lie. You missed a whole 86.5%, can you tell me what happened to it?



I'm not at all hating, I just felt the need to say something aloud, I really am amused by so called "logic" especially when it takes nothing other than a single realisation to understand that "logic" is nothing other than mans way of hiding his ideal. I'm also a She.





Mmmhum, so what gets done with 86.5% of a situation that got left out to clarify that 50% or 100% as a mulitiple of 3 divides to equal 12.5%. The statistics just made it look different on graph, why didn't you just change it to a pie chart?
You cant do 100-12.5? You suck it's 87.5 not 86.5 you ****ing idiot.
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Old 09-23-2012, 04:15   #45
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I figured I'd make myself 99% certain that the 1% you latch onto is the part no one gives a shiit about. Since you somehow managed to account for 12.5% of something that 87.5% of the same thing made sure the 12.5% wouldn't ever happen, I'd like to offer you the opportunity to kiss my ass and learn real math.

Last edited by Myaio; 09-23-2012 at 04:18.
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